Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis

Overview

• The model's single biggest takeaway is a projected Democratic flip of both the State Senate and State Assembly, turning Wisconsin's legislative map blue.
• Democrats are favored to control the State Senate at 87.1% vs. 12.9% for Republicans, and the State Assembly at 87.2% vs. 12.8% for Republicans.

• Statewide races lean Democratic across the board, with Democrats defending most offices and picking up one currently Republican-held seat.
• Governor (Francesca Hong): 80% win probability, +7.9 margin — Likely D (currently D).
• Attorney General (Josh Kaul): 95% win probability, +15.5 margin — Safe D (currently D).
• Secretary of State (Collin McNamara): 85% win probability, +9.9 margin — Likely D (currently D).
• State Treasurer (Dylan Helmenstine): 71% win probability, +5.3 margin — Lean D (currently Republican-held).

• The model gives Democrats a 58.3% chance of a full trifecta, Republicans just 0.5%, and a split-control outcome 41.2%.

• Structural inputs tilt the environment toward the out-party: presidential approval at 41% (Republican president), consumer sentiment at 49.5, GDP growth at 2.1%, and a midterm-year dynamic that historically disadvantages the party in power.

Path to control

Governor's Office

The model gives Francesca Hong a 79.6% chance of winning, projecting a +7.9 point Democratic margin — rated Likely D. This is not a toss-up, but it is the statewide race with the most Republican upside.

• Democrats must simply hold: no pickups needed, they currently hold the seat.
• Republicans need Tom Tiffany to overcome a structural deficit in a midterm environment that, as the model treats it, disadvantages the presidential party.

State Senate

Democrats are strongly favored to flip the chamber. The model gives Democrats 87.1% control probability versus 12.9% for Republicans.

Current makeup: Democrats hold 15 seats, Republicans hold 18. Majority threshold: 17.

Projected outcome: Democrats 17, Republicans 16 — a Democratic flip.

Seat math with holdovers:

• Democrats enter with 10 holdover seats (not up this cycle).
• Republicans enter with 6 holdover seats.
• Democrats need 7 wins from the 17 seats on the ballot; Republicans need 11.

What Democrats need:

• Their 6 non-toss-up competitive seats (4 Safe D, 2 Likely D) are expected to hold.
• They must win enough toss-ups. The three pure toss-ups are:
• State Senate District 17 — Corrine Hendrickson vs. Howard Marklein, Dem win prob 56% (Toss-up, slight D lean)
• State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung vs. the Republican candidate, Dem win prob 46% (Toss-up, slight R lean)
• State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray vs. Angie Sapik, Dem win prob 45% (Toss-up, slight R lean)

What Republicans need to hold the chamber (the trailing-party path):

• Win all 3 toss-ups above — both Districts 21 and 25 already lean slightly their way.
• Hold State Senate District 9 (Lean R, 34% Dem win prob against Amy Binsfeld) — currently in their column.
• Prevent Democrats from winning State Senate District 31 (Jeff Smith vs. Jesse James, 78% Dem win prob, Likely D) — a very difficult ask.

State Assembly

Democrats are also strongly favored to flip the Assembly. The model gives Democrats 87.2% control probability versus 12.8% for Republicans.

Current makeup: Democrats hold 45 seats, Republicans hold 54. Majority threshold: 50.

Projected outcome: Democrats 52, Republicans 47 — a Democratic flip of +7 net seats.

What Democrats need:

• Hold all seats rated Safe D (25), Likely D (20), and Lean D (5) — 50 seats total, right at the majority line before toss-ups.
• The four pure toss-ups to watch:
• Assembly District 30 — Democratic candidate vs. Shannon Zimmerman, Dem win prob 51% (virtually a coin flip, +0.6 margin)
• Assembly District 85 — Democratic candidate vs. Patrick Snyder, Dem win prob 55% (Toss-up)
• Assembly District 92 — Jeremiah Fredrickson vs. Clint Moses, Dem win prob 55% (Toss-up)
• Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho vs. Republican candidate, Dem win prob 45% (Toss-up, slight R lean)

What Republicans need to hold the chamber:

• Sweep all 4 toss-ups above.
• Win back several seats currently rated Lean D, including Assembly District 51 (Todd Novak defending, Dem win prob 61%).
• Hold all 6 Lean R seats and all 27 Likely R seats — none of those can slip.

U.S. House (WI Delegation)

Republicans are heavily favored to keep their delegation majority. The model gives Republicans 85.5% control probability versus 14.5% for Democrats.

Current makeup: Democrats hold 2 seats, Republicans hold 6. Majority threshold: 5 of 8.

Projected outcome: Democrats 3, Republicans 5 — Republicans hold, Democrats gain one seat.

What Democrats need to reach 5:

• Hold both Safe D seats (already baked in).
• Win U.S. House District 3 — Emily Berge vs. Derrick Van Orden, 63% Dem win prob (Lean D) — the model's expected pickup.
• Then win U.S. House District 1 — Enrique Casiano vs. Bryan Steil, only 31% Dem win prob (Lean R) — a steep climb.
• Then win at least one Likely R seat (Districts 5, 6, or 8), all of which carry Dem win probabilities between 12% and 21% — extremely unlikely by the model's reckoning.

What Republicans need:

• Simply hold District 1 (Lean R) and their three Likely R seats. The model gives them a robust cushion here.

Trifecta Outlook

The model assigns a Democratic trifecta probability of 58.3%, a Republican trifecta probability of just 0.5%, and a split outcome probability of 41.2%.

• Democrats need to win the Governor's race (Likely D, 80%), flip both the State Senate and State Assembly (both 87% control probability) — three independently probable but jointly uncertain outcomes. The model says this combination comes together roughly 3 in 5 times.
• Republicans face an extraordinarily narrow path: they would need to overcome the structural headwinds driving both chambers toward Democrats, plus defeat Francesca Hong — a scenario the model rates at less than 1%.
• The most likely alternative to a Democratic trifecta is a split government, at 41.2% — most plausibly a Democratic Governor paired with one chamber still in Republican hands, though the specific split is not itemized in the briefing.

Race spotlights

State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray vs. Angie Sapik

The model rates this race a Toss-up, giving the Democratic candidate Charly Ray a 45% win probability and projecting a Republican margin of -2.1 points — the second-closest race in the entire forecast. This is a currently Republican-held seat, meaning a Ray victory would represent a Democratic pickup. The near-even odds and razor-thin margin place it among the most consequential contests for Democratic efforts to flip the State Senate.

State Senate District 17 — Corrine Hendrickson vs. Howard Marklein

The model rates this a Toss-up, giving Corrine Hendrickson a 56% win probability and projecting a Democratic margin of +2.5 points. Like SD-25, this is a currently Republican-held seat, and flipping it would directly contribute to Democrats reaching the 17-seat majority threshold in the chamber. The model considers it close enough that either outcome remains well within reach.

State Assembly District 92 — Jeremiah Fredrickson vs. Clint Moses

Rated a Toss-up and ranked the single closest race in the overall forecast, the model gives Jeremiah Fredrickson a 55% win probability with a projected Democratic margin of just +2.4 points. This is a currently Republican-held Assembly seat, and its near-coin-flip status reflects the model's uncertainty about Democratic gains in marginal districts. It sits at the heart of the projected Assembly majority, where the model projects Democrats flipping from 45 to 52 seats.

U.S. House District 3 — Emily Berge vs. Derrick Van Orden

The model rates this Lean D, giving Emily Berge a 63% win probability and projecting a Democratic margin of +4.7 points — the closest congressional race in Wisconsin's delegation. This is a currently Republican-held seat, and a Democratic pickup here would move the projected WI delegation from 2–6 to 3–5 in Republicans' favor. The Lean D rating signals a meaningful but not commanding Democratic edge.

State Treasurer — Dylan Helmenstine vs. John Leiber

Rated Lean D, the model gives Dylan Helmenstine a 71% win probability with a projected margin of +5.3 points. Notably, this is a currently Republican-held statewide seat, making it the only statewide office on the ballot where Democrats are attempting a pickup rather than defending. At 71%, the model treats it as a clear but not safe Democratic advantage — the most competitive of the four statewide races.

Weekly digest

Wisconsin's 2026 elections are shaping up as a strong — but not certain — Democratic year, with the model projecting Democratic gains up and down the ballot driven by a 41% presidential approval rating and a consumer sentiment reading of just 49.5.

The Top of the Ticket

The Governor's race is the headline statewide contest. Francesca Hong holds a Likely D rating against Tom Tiffany, with the model giving her a 80% win probability and a projected margin of +7.9 points — a meaningful advantage, but not a blowout.

The other statewide offices look safer for Democrats:

• Attorney General — Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney: rated Safe D, 95% win probability, +15.5 point margin.
• Secretary of State — Collin McNamara vs. Brayden Myer: rated Likely D, 85% win probability, +9.9 point margin.
• State Treasurer — Dylan Helmenstine vs. John Leiber: the closest statewide race, rated Lean D with a 71% win probability and a +5.3 point margin. This is the one Republicans currently hold and have the best shot of keeping.

The Legislature

Democrats are positioned to flip both legislative chambers — though nothing is locked in.

• State Senate: The model projects Democrats winning 17 seats (the exact majority threshold), giving them an 87.1% chance of control vs. Republicans' 12.9%. They currently trail 15–18.
• State Assembly: Democrats are projected to flip from a 45–54 deficit to a 52–47 majority, with an 87.2% chamber-control probability vs. 12.8% for Republicans.
• Democratic trifecta (Governor + both chambers): the model puts the probability at 58.3%, with a split-control outcome more likely (41.2%) than a Republican trifecta (0.5%).

Races to Watch

• State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray vs. Angie Sapik: a pure toss-up, with the Democratic candidate at just 45% — essentially a coin flip in a currently Republican seat.
• State Senate District 17 — Corrine Hendrickson vs. Howard Marklein: another toss-up, with Democrats holding a razor-thin 56% edge and a +2.5 margin.
• U.S. House District 3 — Emily Berge vs. Derrick Van Orden: rated Lean D at 63%, this is the most plausible Democratic pickup in the congressional delegation.
• State Assembly District 92 — Jeremiah Fredrickson vs. Clint Moses: a toss-up at 55% Democratic, with a +2.4 margin in a seat Republicans currently hold.

The Bottom Line

The model's structural inputs — a low presidential approval, weak consumer sentiment, and a midterm environment — are all pointing in Democrats' favor, making 2026 look like a potential wave year in Wisconsin, though key toss-up races could still determine whether that wave fully materializes.