Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis

Overview

• The model's single biggest takeaway is a projected Democratic flip of both the State Senate and State Assembly, with Democrats favored to gain majorities in each chamber.
• Democrats hold an 81.0% chance of controlling the State Senate and an 82.3% chance of controlling the State Assembly; Republicans retain an 84.7% edge in the WI U.S. House delegation.
• The statewide picture leans Democratic across all four offices on the ballot.
• Governor (77%, Likely D): David Crowley is favored; this is a Democratic-held seat.
• Attorney General (95%, Safe D): Josh Kaul is strongly favored in a Democratic-held seat.
• Secretary of State (89%, Likely D): JoCasta Zamarripa holds a solid edge in a Democratic-held seat.
• State Treasurer (71%, Lean D): Yee Leng Xiong has a modest edge in a seat currently held by Republicans.
• The trifecta outlook is split: Democrats have a 48.3% chance, Republicans just 1.2%, with a 50.5% probability of divided government.
• Structural inputs drive a favorable environment for Democrats: presidential approval is 40% with a Republican in the White House, consumer sentiment is 51, GDP growth is 1.5%, and 2026 is a midterm year — all factors the model treats as headwinds for the president's party.

Path to control

Governor's Office

The model gives David Crowley a 77% chance of winning, projecting a +7.1 point Democratic margin — a Likely D rating. Democrats hold this office and are favored to keep it.

• Democratic path: Hold the governorship as the clear favorite.
• Republican path (trailing): Tom Tiffany must overcome a structural headwind — the model incorporates a presidential approval rating of 40% for the Republican incumbent party and a consumer sentiment index of 51, both of which weigh against the GOP in a midterm environment. Republicans need the statewide environment to shift materially from what the model currently prices in.

State Senate

• Control probability: Democrats 81.0% | Republicans 19.0%
• Majority threshold: 17 seats
• Holdover seats: Democrats hold 10 holdovers; Republicans hold 6 holdovers
• Seats up this cycle: 17
• Projected outcome: Democrats 17, Republicans 16 — a razor-thin Democratic majority

Democratic path to majority: Democrats need 7 of the 17 seats up this cycle (on top of their 10 holdovers). The model projects them reaching exactly that. They must hold their Safe D (4) and Likely D (2) seats and make net gains in the toss-up tier:

• SD-17: Jenna Jacobson vs. Howard Marklein — 59.9% Dem, Toss-up (currently R)
• SD-31: Jeff Smith vs. Michele Magadance Skinner — 78.2% Dem, Likely D (currently R) *(not a toss-up, but a key pickup)*

Republican path to majority (trailing): Republicans need 11 of the 17 seats up to reach 17 total (6 holdovers + 11). They must hold all their Safe R (5), Likely R (3) seats, and sweep the toss-ups while limiting Democratic gains. Specifically, Republicans need wins in all three toss-up districts:

• SD-21: Jim Croft vs. Trevor Jung — 54.2% Rep, Toss-up (currently R)
• SD-25: Erik Severson vs. Charly Ray — 59.0% Rep, Toss-up (currently R)
• SD-17: Howard Marklein vs. Jenna Jacobson — 40.1% Rep, Toss-up (currently R)

Republicans must win all three of those toss-ups and hold every Likely R seat to have a path.

State Assembly

• Control probability: Democrats 82.3% | Republicans 17.7%
• Majority threshold: 50 seats
• Seats up this cycle: All 99
• Projected outcome: Democrats 51, Republicans 48

Democratic path to majority: The model projects Democrats gaining 6 seats (from 45 to 51), just clearing the majority. They must convert seats across their Lean D tier (5 seats) and the toss-up districts:

• AD-30: Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman — 51.1% Dem, Toss-up (currently R)
• AD-92: Jeremiah Fredrickson vs. Clint Moses — 54.5% Dem, Toss-up (currently R)
• AD-85: John Kroll vs. Patrick Snyder — 54.8% Dem, Toss-up (currently R)
• AD-82: Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes — 45.1% Dem, Toss-up (currently R)
• AD-51: Ben Gruber vs. Todd Novak — 60.4% Dem, Lean D (currently R)

Democrats can afford to lose some toss-ups and still hit 50 if their Lean D seats hold.

Republican path to majority (trailing): Republicans need 50 seats. They must hold their Safe R (16) and Likely R (25) seats, sweep all four Assembly toss-ups, and hold all four Lean R seats — while also defending against Democratic inroads in the Lean D tier.

U.S. House (WI Delegation)

• Control probability: Democrats 15.3% | Republicans 84.7%
• Majority threshold: 5 seats (of 8)
• Projected outcome: Democrats 3, Republicans 5

Republican path to majority: Already projected to hold it. Republicans must protect their Lean R seat:

• WI-01: Bryan Steil vs. Mitchell Berman — 69% Rep, Lean R (currently R)

Democratic path to majority (trailing): Democrats need 5 seats — a gain of 3 from their current 2. The model projects them winning only 3. To reach 5, Democrats would need to flip:

• WI-03: Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden — 60.7% Dem, Lean D (currently R) *(their most realistic pickup)*
• WI-01: Mitchell Berman vs. Bryan Steil — 31% Dem, Lean R (currently R)
• Plus additional seats currently rated Likely R, where Democratic win probabilities range from 12–21%

The model gives this scenario only a 15.3% chance — a very steep climb.

Trifecta Outlook

The model puts a Democratic trifecta (Governor + State Senate + State Assembly) at 48.3%, a Republican trifecta at just 1.2%, and a split-control outcome at 50.5%.

• Democrats need Crowley to win the governorship (77%) *and* flip both the Senate (81.0%) and Assembly (82.3%) — all simultaneously, which the model rates as a near-coin-flip overall.
• Republicans face an extremely narrow trifecta path: they would need to hold the two legislative chambers they currently lead in *and* defeat the favored Democratic incumbent governor — a combination the model prices at only 1.2% given the unfavorable midterm environment for the presidential party.
• The most likely outcome the model describes is split control, with Democrats winning the legislative chambers while the governorship adds uncertainty.

Race spotlights

State Assembly District 30: Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman

The forecast rates this race a Toss-up, with Kevin Knoke holding a razor-thin 51% win probability and a projected margin of just +0.6 points. This is the single closest contest in the model, making it essentially a pure coin flip. The seat is currently held by Republicans, so a Democratic win here would represent a pickup in what the model treats as genuinely undecided territory.

State Senate District 21: Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft

The model rates this a Toss-up, giving Trevor Jung (D) a 46% win probability and projecting a -1.8 point margin — a slight Republican lean, but well within the margin of uncertainty. This is a Republican-held seat, and a Democratic pickup here would be critical to the party's path to a State Senate majority. The model treats it as a near-pure toss-up given the statewide structural environment of a 40% presidential approval rating and weak consumer sentiment (51), both headwinds for the party currently holding the White House.

State Senate District 17: Jenna Jacobson vs. Howard Marklein

Jenna Jacobson (D) is given a 60% win probability and a projected +4.3 point margin, rated a Toss-up despite the modest Democratic edge. This is another Republican-held seat, and with Democrats needing net gains in the chamber, it represents one of their clearest pickup opportunities among the toss-up contests. The model's midterm-environment inputs — including below-average consumer sentiment and a presidential approval of 40% for the party in power — contribute to the Democratic lean here, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.

State Senate District 25: Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson

The forecast gives Charly Ray (D) just a 41% chance of winning, with Erik Severson (R) projected ahead by 3.9 points — yet the model still rates it a Toss-up. This Republican-held seat tilts toward the GOP in the model's current output, and a Democratic miss here would make flipping the Senate majority significantly harder. The unfavorable economic inputs (GDP growth of 1.5%, consumer sentiment of 51) weigh against the Republican presidential party but are not sufficient to fully overcome the seat's existing Republican lean.

State Assembly District 82: Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes

The model rates this a Toss-up, with Enrique Camacho (D) at 45% and Bryson Reyes (R) projected ahead by 2.6 points. Like all four Assembly toss-ups, this is a currently Republican-held seat, meaning every one of the toss-up contests represents a potential Democratic pickup. The model's structural inputs — midterm dynamics, low presidential approval, and soft consumer sentiment — create a favorable statewide environment for Democrats but leave individual district outcomes genuinely unresolved.

Where the Model Differs

• Governor — David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany: Model: Likely D / 77% | Benchmark: Toss-up (7 expert ratings). The model's structural inputs — a 40% presidential approval rating for the Republican party in power, a midterm cycle, consumer sentiment of 51, and GDP growth of only 1.5% — combine to produce a meaningfully favorable statewide environment for Democrats, which the model weighs heavily enough to push this race out of toss-up territory into a clear Democratic lean.

• Attorney General — Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney: Model: Safe D / 95% | Benchmark: Lean D (1 expert rating). The model's Democratic-favorable statewide environment, applied to a seat the Democratic party already holds, produces a much larger projected margin (+15.7 points) than a lean rating implies; the model treats that combination of incumbency and structural tailwinds as sufficient to rate the seat safe.

• Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa vs. Nathan Pollnow: Model: Likely D / 89% | Benchmark: Toss-up (1 expert rating). With a Democratic-held seat and a projected margin of +11.9 points, the model's structural inputs — midterm headwinds for the Republican presidential party — generate enough of a Democratic advantage statewide that the model sees this race as considerably safer than a toss-up rating would suggest.

Weekly digest

Wisconsin's 2026 midterm map is tilting blue — but not uniformly, and a handful of knife-edge districts will decide whether Democrats can flip the legislature and claim a governing trifecta.

The Top of the Ticket

The governor's race is the marquee contest of the cycle. The model gives David Crowley a 77% chance of defeating Tom Tiffany, projecting a +7.1-point Democratic margin — a Likely D rating. That's a notably more confident read than the external consensus: seven expert raters call it a Toss-up, but the model's structural inputs — a presidential approval of 40%, consumer sentiment of just 51, and midterm-year dynamics working against the president's party — point more clearly toward a Democratic advantage.

Down the ballot, Josh Kaul is rated Safe D with a 95% win probability and a projected +15.7-point margin in the Attorney General race. One outside rater calls it Lean D; the model, weighting the same favorable statewide environment, lands at Safe D. JoCasta Zamarripa is similarly well-positioned in the Secretary of State race at 89% and Likely D, though one external benchmark rates it a Toss-up. Yee Leng Xiong holds a Lean D edge (71%, +5.2) in the State Treasurer race — the softest of the four statewide contests, and the one Democratic pickup opportunity given the seat is currently held by Republicans.

The Legislature

Democrats are projected to flip both legislative chambers. The model shows:

• State Senate: Democrats favored at 81.0% to seize majority control (projected 17–16), flipping from a current 15–18 deficit.
• State Assembly: Democrats hold an 82.3% chance of flipping the chamber (projected 51–48), up from a 45–54 current deficit.

A full Democratic trifecta — governor plus both chambers — sits at 48.3%, just shy of even odds, with a split outcome slightly more likely at 50.5%.

Races to Watch

• State Assembly District 30 (Knoke vs. Zimmerman): the single closest race statewide, a pure Toss-up at 51% Democratic / +0.6 points.
• State Senate District 21 (Jung vs. Croft): Toss-up, 46% Democratic, –1.8 points — currently Republican-held.
• State Senate District 25 (Ray vs. Severson): Toss-up, 41% Democratic, –3.9 points — the most Republican-leaning of the toss-ups.
• State Senate District 17 (Jacobson vs. Marklein): Toss-up, 60% Democratic, +4.3 points — the most attainable of the three Senate toss-ups for Democrats.

The Bottom Line

The model's structural environment — low presidential approval, weak consumer sentiment, and midterm headwinds against the president's party — points toward a blue wave in Wisconsin, but the trifecta remains a coin flip hinging on a small cluster of districts that could break either way.