Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis

Overview

• The model favors Democrats flipping both the State Senate and State Assembly, projecting a blue wave in the legislature that would reverse current Republican majorities in both chambers.
• Democrats are given 84.7% control of the State Senate and 87.8% control of the State Assembly; Republicans hold 14.7% and 11.9% chances respectively.
• The statewide office environment also leans Democratic across the board.
• Governor: David Crowley leads at 76% (Lean D, D-held seat), projected D+8.1
• Attorney General: Josh Kaul is strongly favored at 93% (Likely D), projected D+16.4
• Secretary of State: JoCasta Zamarripa at 84% (Likely D), projected D+11.3
• State Treasurer: Yee Leng Xiong leads at 73% (Lean D) — notably, this seat is currently Republican-held
• The model gives Democrats a 52.8% chance at a full trifecta; Republicans trail at just 1.3%, with a 45.8% probability of split government.
• The structural environment strongly favors the out-party: presidential approval sits at 38% with a Republican in the White House, consumer sentiment at 46.3, GDP growth at 2.2%, and 2026 is a midterm year — all factors the model weights against the incumbent party.

Path to control

Governor's Office

The model gives David Crowley a 76% chance of winning, projecting a D+8.1 margin — rated Lean D. Tom Tiffany has a 24% chance.

• To win: Democrats hold a meaningful but not comfortable edge; Republicans must close an 8-point gap in a midterm environment that the model treats as unfavorable to the presidential party.

State Senate

Democrats are projected to flip the chamber, winning 17 seats to Republicans' 16 — exactly the 17-seat majority threshold.

• Democrat control probability: 84.7% | Republican control probability: 14.7%
• Holdover seats: Democrats hold 10 non-competitive holdovers; Republicans hold 6
• Seats up this cycle: 17 — Democrats need a net gain of 2 from the 17 contested seats to reach 17 total

Projected seat ratings (seats up):

• Safe D: 4 | Lean D: 3 | Toss-up: 2 | Lean R: 1 | Likely R: 4 | Safe R: 3

Path for Democrats (the projected majority party):

• Hold all 3 Lean D seats (Districts 17, 31, and one additional)
• Win at least 1 of 2 toss-ups: District 21 (Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft, essentially a coin flip at 48%/52%) and District 25 (Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson, 44%/56%)

Path for Republicans (the trailing party):

• Must hold their Lean R seat (District 29, 76% Republican) ✓ likely
• Must sweep both toss-ups (Districts 21 and 25) — each currently leans marginally Republican but is rated Toss-up
• Must also flip at least one Lean D seat (most likely District 17, where Jenna Jacobson leads at 62%)

State Assembly

Democrats are projected to flip the chamber, winning 53 seats to Republicans' 46 — clearing the 50-seat majority threshold by 3.

• Democrat control probability: 87.8% | Republican control probability: 11.9%
• All 99 seats are up this cycle

Projected seat ratings:

• Safe D: 19 | Likely D: 18 | Lean D: 13 | Toss-up: 5 | Lean R: 17 | Likely R: 20 | Safe R: 7

Path for Democrats (the projected majority party):

• Hold all 13 Lean D seats and sweep Safe D + Likely D seats (50 combined before toss-ups)
• Win at least some toss-ups as a buffer; the model already projects them winning enough to reach 53

Path for Republicans (the trailing party):

• Must hold all 17 Lean R + 20 Likely R + 7 Safe R seats (44 total)
• Must sweep all 5 toss-ups: Districts 82 (Bryson Reyes, 53%), 22 (Paul Melotik, 59%), 30 (Kevin Knoke leading at 54%), 92 (Jeremiah Fredrickson leading at 56%), and 85 (John Kroll leading at 57%)
• Must also flip at least 1 Lean D seat — even a toss-up sweep only gets Republicans to roughly 49 seats

U.S. House (WI Delegation)

Wisconsin's 8-seat delegation is projected 3 Democrats / 5 Republicans — Republicans hold the current 6–2 edge and are favored to retain a majority of the delegation.

• Republican delegation-majority probability: 41.7% | Democrat delegation-majority probability: 23.4% | No majority (4–4 split): 34.9%
• Majority threshold: 5 of 8 seats

Projected seat ratings:

• Safe D: 2 | Lean D: 1 | Lean R: 3 | Likely R: 2

Path for Democrats (the trailing party):

• Must hold 2 Safe D seats and win Lean D District 3 (Rebecca Cooke, 63%) — that yields only 3
• Must then flip at least 2 of the 3 Lean R seats: District 1 (Bryan Steil leads at 64%), District 5 (Scott Fitzgerald leads at 74%), District 8 (Tony Wied leads at 80%)
• The model considers this a long shot at 23%

Path for Republicans (to hold 5+ seats):

• Hold both Likely R seats (Districts 7 and 5, where the model rates them Likely R and Lean R respectively) plus all 3 Lean R seats
• Losing District 3 to Rebecca Cooke (projected 63% Democratic) is already baked into the model's baseline

Trifecta

The model gives Democrats a 52.8% chance of a full trifecta (Governor + State Senate + State Assembly), Republicans just 1.3%, and a 45.8% chance of divided government.

• Democrats need Crowley to hold the governorship (76%) while simultaneously flipping both legislative chambers — outcomes the model finds correlated but not certain together.
• Republicans face a near-impossible path: they must win the governorship against the model's lean, sweep both toss-up Senate seats, hold all Lean R Assembly seats, and flip multiple Lean D Assembly seats — a combination the model rates at just 1 in 77.
• The likeliest alternative to a Democratic trifecta is split government, most plausibly a Democratic Governor paired with one or both legislative chambers in dispute.

Race spotlights

State Senate District 21: Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft

The model rates this the single closest race in Wisconsin, projecting a razor-thin R+0.9 margin with Jim Croft holding a 51.7% win probability against Democratic challenger Trevor Jung — a virtual coin flip. Currently held by Republicans, this seat sits at the center of the State Senate majority fight, and the model rates it Toss-up. The structural environment — a presidential approval of 38% for the Republican-party president in a midterm year combined with a consumer sentiment reading of just 46.3 — keeps Democratic prospects alive even in a Republican-held district.

State Assembly District 82: Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes

The model's second-closest race overall, this Republican-held seat shows Bryson Reyes with a narrow 52.7% win probability and a projected margin of just R+1.7, rated Toss-up. Enrique Camacho trails by less than 2 points in the forecast, making this seat one of the most likely to flip. As one of five Assembly toss-ups, it sits directly in the zone that determines whether Democrats can complete their projected pickup from 45 to 53 seats.

State Assembly District 30: Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman

This Republican-held seat is rated Toss-up and leans slightly toward Democrats, with Kevin Knoke at 53.5% and a projected margin of D+2.1. The model treats it as essentially a pure toss-up — less than a 7-point swing separates the two candidates' win probabilities. The weak consumer sentiment (46.3) and the midterm drag on the Republican presidential party are structural factors the model weights in Democrats' favor here.

State Senate District 25: Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson

Erik Severson holds a 55.9% win probability in this Republican-held seat, projecting a R+3.0 margin — enough to rate Toss-up but leaning modestly toward the GOP. Charly Ray trails but remains within realistic striking distance given the broader statewide environment. Alongside District 21, this race is one of two Senate toss-ups that will heavily shape whether Democrats reach the 17-seat majority threshold.

State Senate District 17: Jenna Jacobson vs. Howard Marklein

Rated Lean D, this Republican-held seat gives Jenna Jacobson a 61.5% win probability and a projected margin of D+5.8 — a modest but meaningful edge. It is the next seat in line behind the toss-ups on the competitive ladder, and a Democratic win here would help cushion any losses elsewhere in the chamber. The model's low presidential approval (38%) and depressed consumer sentiment weigh on the incumbent Republican party's hold on this district.

Where the Model Differs

• U.S. House District 5 (Andrew Beck vs. Scott Fitzgerald): Model rates this Lean R with Beck at 26.3% — the consensus of 4 expert ratings calls it Safe R. The model's structural inputs — a 38% presidential approval for the Republican party's president and a midterm environment that historically disadvantages the president's party — generate enough Democratic upside to pull the race out of the "Safe" tier, even though the seat is currently Republican-held and the model still strongly favors Fitzgerald.

• U.S. House District 8 (Rick Crosson vs. Tony Wied): Model rates this Lean R with Crosson at 20.2% — the consensus of 4 expert ratings calls it Safe R. The same structural headwinds — low presidential approval, weak consumer sentiment of 46.3, and midterm dynamics — lead the model to assign a non-trivial Democratic probability rather than treating the Republican-held seat as entirely out of reach.

Weekly digest

Wisconsin's 2026 elections are shaping up as a strong Democratic cycle — but with enough competitive races to keep the outcome genuinely uncertain in places.

The Top of the Ticket

The model gives David Crowley a Lean D edge over Tom Tiffany in the Governor's race, with a 76% win probability and a projected margin of D+8.1. That's a meaningful but not commanding lead — roughly "one good night for Republicans" away from flipping.

Downballot, Democrats look safer:

• Josh Kaul (Attorney General) is strongly favored at 93%, projected D+16.4 — the most secure Democratic statewide race on the board.
• JoCasta Zamarripa (Secretary of State) holds a Likely D rating at 84%, projected D+11.3.
• Yee Leng Xiong (State Treasurer) is the closest statewide contest outside the Governor's race — Lean D at 73%, projected D+6.7, and notably this is a seat the model shows currently held by Republicans.

The Legislature

Democrats are well-positioned to flip both chambers.

• State Senate: The model projects Democrats gaining control 17–16, with a 84.7% control probability versus 14.7% for Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of two seats and currently hold 10 of 17 holdover seats, giving them a built-in foundation.
• State Assembly: An even bigger projected swing — Democrats are forecast to win 53–46, flipping a chamber they currently trail 45–54. Control probability: 87.8% Democratic, 11.9% Republican.
• Trifecta: With Crowley favored in the Governor's race and both chambers leaning Democratic, the model puts a full Democratic trifecta at 52.8% — a coin-flip with a slight Democratic lean.

Races to Watch

The four closest contests across all offices:

• State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft: the single tightest race on the board, rated Toss-up at 48–52, projected R+0.9.
• State Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes: Toss-up, 47–53, projected R+1.7.
• State Assembly District 30 — Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman: Toss-up, 54–47, projected D+2.1.
• State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson: Toss-up, 44–56, projected R+3.0.

The Bottom Line

The model's overall picture is a Democratic-leaning Wisconsin midterm — but several razor-thin legislative races mean the final map of the legislature won't be settled until the votes are counted.