Wisconsin 2026 U.S. House Forecast
Race-by-race U.S. House forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats are favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 3 of 8 seats up for election; Republicans in 5.
Current composition
Democrats 2 · Republicans 6.
Races
- U.S. House District 1 — Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R). Democratic win probability: 31.0% (Republican 69.0%).
- U.S. House District 2 — Mark Pocan (D) vs. Erik Olsen (R). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- U.S. House District 3 — Rebecca Cooke (D) vs. Derrick Van Orden (R). Democratic win probability: 60.7% (Republican 39.3%).
- U.S. House District 4 — Gwen Moore (D) vs. Purnima Nath (R). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- U.S. House District 5 — Andrew Beck (D) vs. Scott Fitzgerald (R). Democratic win probability: 21.1% (Republican 78.9%).
- U.S. House District 6 — Brad Smith (D) vs. Glenn Grothman (R). Democratic win probability: 11.4% (Republican 88.6%).
- U.S. House District 7 — Fred Clark (D) vs. Michael Alfonso (R). Democratic win probability: 12.8% (Republican 87.2%).
- U.S. House District 8 — Rick Crosson (D) vs. Tony Wied (R). Democratic win probability: 15.1% (Republican 84.9%).