Wisconsin 2026 U.S. House Forecast
Race-by-race U.S. House forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats are favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 3 of 8 seats up for election; Republicans in 5.
Current composition
Democrats 2 · Republicans 6.
Races
- U.S. House District 1 — Enrique Casiano (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R). Democratic win probability: 31.1% (Republican 68.9%).
- U.S. House District 2 — Mark Pocan (D) vs. Erik Olsen (R). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- U.S. House District 3 — Emily Berge (D) vs. Derrick Van Orden (R). Democratic win probability: 63.0% (Republican 37.0%).
- U.S. House District 4 — Gwen Moore (D) vs. Purnima Nath (R). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- U.S. House District 5 — Andrew Beck (D) vs. Scott Fitzgerald (R). Democratic win probability: 21.2% (Republican 78.8%).
- U.S. House District 6 — Amanda Bell (D) vs. Glenn Grothman (R). Democratic win probability: 11.5% (Republican 88.5%).
- U.S. House District 7 — Chris Armstrong (D) vs. Jessi Ebben (R). Democratic win probability: 10.1% (Republican 89.9%).
- U.S. House District 8 — Benjamin Hable (D) vs. Tony Wied (R). Democratic win probability: 13.7% (Republican 86.3%).