WisPredict — 2026 Wisconsin Election Forecast
Live 2026 Wisconsin election forecasts for Governor, statewide offices, the State Senate, State Assembly, and U.S. House. Race-by-race win probabilities, projected balance of power, and analysis.
Overall outlook
- The model's single biggest takeaway is a projected Democratic flip of both the State Senate and State Assembly, with Democrats favored to gain majorities in each chamber.
- Democrats hold an 81.0% chance of controlling the State Senate and an 82.3% chance of controlling the State Assembly; Republicans retain an 84.7% edge in the WI U.S. House delegation.
- The statewide picture leans Democratic across all four offices on the ballot.
- Governor (77%, Likely D): David Crowley is favored; this is a Democratic-held seat.
- Attorney General (95%, Safe D): Josh Kaul is strongly favored in a Democratic-held seat.
- Secretary of State (89%, Likely D): JoCasta Zamarripa holds a solid edge in a Democratic-held seat.
- State Treasurer (71%, Lean D): Yee Leng Xiong has a modest edge in a seat currently held by Republicans.
- The trifecta outlook is split: Democrats have a 48.3% chance, Republicans just 1.2%, with a 50.5% probability of divided government.
- Structural inputs drive a favorable environment for Democrats: presidential approval is 40% with a Republican in the White House, consumer sentiment is 51, GDP growth is 1.5%, and 2026 is a midterm year — all factors the model treats as headwinds for the president's party.
Statewide races (2026)
- Governor — David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R). Democratic win probability: 77.0% (Republican 23.0%).
- Attorney General — Josh Kaul (D) vs. Eric Toney (R). Democratic win probability: 94.9% (Republican 5.1%).
- Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa (D) vs. Nathan Pollnow (R). Democratic win probability: 89.3% (Republican 10.7%).
- State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong (D) vs. John Leiber (R). Democratic win probability: 70.6% (Republican 29.4%).
Legislative & congressional outlook
- State Senate: Democrats favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 7 of 17 seats up for election; Republicans favored in 10.
- State Assembly: Democrats favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 53 of 99 seats up for election; Republicans favored in 46.
- U.S. House: Democrats favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 3 of 8 seats up for election; Republicans favored in 5.
Latest news
- Crowley has slight lead on Tiffany with likely voters in post-primary poll - apg-wi.com (apg-wi.com)
- Takeaways on Marquette poll: Crowley dominating independents, data centers are loathed, and Tiffany is an extremist - The Milwaukee Courier (The Milwaukee Courier)
- Wisconsin governor's race tightens as independents remain undecided, debate plans unclear - TMJ4 News (TMJ4 News)
- Wisconsin joins new lawsuit to block Trump order on mail-in voting - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
- Marquette Law Poll: Crowley leads Tiffany among likely voters in Wisconsin governor's race - WKOW (WKOW)
- Crowley, Tiffany tied in Wisconsin governor’s race: Poll - The Hill (The Hill)