WisPredict — 2026 Wisconsin Election Forecast
Live 2026 Wisconsin election forecasts for Governor, statewide offices, the State Senate, State Assembly, and U.S. House. Race-by-race win probabilities, projected balance of power, and analysis.
Overall outlook
- The model favors Democrats flipping both the State Senate and State Assembly, projecting a blue wave in the legislature that would reverse current Republican majorities in both chambers.
- Democrats are given 84.7% control of the State Senate and 87.8% control of the State Assembly; Republicans hold 14.7% and 11.9% chances respectively.
- The statewide office environment also leans Democratic across the board.
- Governor: David Crowley leads at 76% (Lean D, D-held seat), projected D+8.1
- Attorney General: Josh Kaul is strongly favored at 93% (Likely D), projected D+16.4
- Secretary of State: JoCasta Zamarripa at 84% (Likely D), projected D+11.3
- State Treasurer: Yee Leng Xiong leads at 73% (Lean D) — notably, this seat is currently Republican-held
- The model gives Democrats a 52.8% chance at a full trifecta; Republicans trail at just 1.3%, with a 45.8% probability of split government.
- The structural environment strongly favors the out-party: presidential approval sits at 38% with a Republican in the White House, consumer sentiment at 46.3, GDP growth at 2.2%, and 2026 is a midterm year — all factors the model weights against the incumbent party.
Statewide races (2026)
- Governor — David Crowley (Democratic) vs. Tom Tiffany (Republican). Win probability: D 76.4%, R 23.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 54.0%, R 46.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
- Attorney General — Josh Kaul (Democratic) vs. Eric Toney (Republican). Win probability: D 92.8%, R 7.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.2%, R 41.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
- Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa (Democratic) vs. Jay Schroeder (Republican). Win probability: D 84.4%, R 15.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 55.7%, R 44.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
- State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong (Democratic) vs. John Leiber (Republican). Win probability: D 72.6%, R 27.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 53.4%, R 46.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
Legislative & congressional outlook
- State Senate: Democrats predicted in 7; Republicans in 10; Other candidates in 0 of 17 seats up for election.
- State Assembly: Democrats predicted in 53; Republicans in 46; Other candidates in 0 of 99 seats up for election.
- U.S. House: Democrats predicted in 3; Republicans in 5; Other candidates in 0 of 8 seats up for election.
Latest news
- Democrats launch campaign push in La Crosse ahead of election - news8000.com (news8000.com)
- Francesca Hong Returns to Campaign to Support Democrats in Wisconsin - Nacionale News (Nacionale News)
- Here’s how many school referendums are on the ballot this fall - Kenosha News (Kenosha News)
- Everything you need to know about voting in Wisconsin’s November election - Wisconsin Watch (Wisconsin Watch)
- 2026 midterms: Why Francesca Hong is still on the campaign trail in Wisconsin - Vox (Vox)
- Fitzgerald faces Beck in race for 5th Congressional district - Greater Milwaukee Today (Greater Milwaukee Today)