Wisconsin 2026 Statewide Races

Forecasts for Wisconsin's statewide offices on the 2026 ballot, with model win probabilities for each party.

Races

Governor — Francesca Hong (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R). Democratic win probability: 79.6% (Republican 20.4%).
Attorney General — Josh Kaul (D) vs. Eric Toney (R). Democratic win probability: 94.7% (Republican 5.3%).
Secretary of State — Collin McNamara (D) vs. Brayden Myer (R). Democratic win probability: 84.9% (Republican 15.1%).
State Treasurer — Dylan Helmenstine (D) vs. John Leiber (R). Democratic win probability: 70.9% (Republican 29.1%).

The model's single biggest takeaway is a projected Democratic flip of both the State Senate and State Assembly, turning Wisconsin's legislative map blue.

Democrats are favored to control the State Senate at 87.1% vs. 12.9% for Republicans, and the State Assembly at 87.2% vs. 12.8% for Republicans.

Statewide races lean Democratic across the board, with Democrats defending most offices and picking up one currently Republican-held seat.

Governor (Francesca Hong): 80% win probability, +7.9 margin — Likely D (currently D).
Attorney General (Josh Kaul): 95% win probability, +15.5 margin — Safe D (currently D).
Secretary of State (Collin McNamara): 85% win probability, +9.9 margin — Likely D (currently D).
State Treasurer (Dylan Helmenstine): 71% win probability, +5.3 margin — Lean D (currently Republican-held).

The model gives Democrats a 58.3% chance of a full trifecta, Republicans just 0.5%, and a split-control outcome 41.2%.

Structural inputs tilt the environment toward the out-party: presidential approval at 41% (Republican president), consumer sentiment at 49.5, GDP growth at 2.1%, and a midterm-year dynamic that historically disadvantages the party in power.