Wisconsin 2026 Statewide Races

Forecasts for Wisconsin's statewide offices on the 2026 ballot, with model win probabilities for each party.

Races

Governor — David Crowley (Democratic) vs. Tom Tiffany (Republican). Win probability: D 76.4%, R 23.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 54.0%, R 46.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
Attorney General — Josh Kaul (Democratic) vs. Eric Toney (Republican). Win probability: D 92.8%, R 7.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.2%, R 41.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa (Democratic) vs. Jay Schroeder (Republican). Win probability: D 84.4%, R 15.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 55.7%, R 44.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong (Democratic) vs. John Leiber (Republican). Win probability: D 72.6%, R 27.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 53.4%, R 46.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.

The model favors Democrats flipping both the State Senate and State Assembly, projecting a blue wave in the legislature that would reverse current Republican majorities in both chambers.

Democrats are given 84.7% control of the State Senate and 87.8% control of the State Assembly; Republicans hold 14.7% and 11.9% chances respectively.

Governor: David Crowley leads at 76% (Lean D, D-held seat), projected D+8.1
Attorney General: Josh Kaul is strongly favored at 93% (Likely D), projected D+16.4
Secretary of State: JoCasta Zamarripa at 84% (Likely D), projected D+11.3
State Treasurer: Yee Leng Xiong leads at 73% (Lean D) — notably, this seat is currently Republican-held

The model gives Democrats a 52.8% chance at a full trifecta; Republicans trail at just 1.3%, with a 45.8% probability of split government.
The structural environment strongly favors the out-party: presidential approval sits at 38% with a Republican in the White House, consumer sentiment at 46.3, GDP growth at 2.2%, and 2026 is a midterm year — all factors the model weights against the incumbent party.