Wisconsin 2026 State Assembly Forecast
Race-by-race State Assembly forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats are favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 53 of 99 seats up for election; Republicans in 46.
Current composition
Democrats 45 · Republicans 54.
Races
- State Assembly District 1 — Joel Kitchens (R). Democratic win probability: 24.2% (Republican 75.8%).
- State Assembly District 2 — Shae Sortwell (R). Democratic win probability: 20.6% (Republican 79.4%).
- State Assembly District 3 — Ron Tusler (R). Democratic win probability: 17.2% (Republican 82.8%).
- State Assembly District 4 — David Steffen (R). Democratic win probability: 13.4% (Republican 86.6%).
- State Assembly District 5 — Joy Goeben (R). Democratic win probability: 21.7% (Republican 78.3%).
- State Assembly District 6 — Elijah Behnke (R). Democratic win probability: 11.1% (Republican 88.9%).
- State Assembly District 7 — Karen Kirsch (D) vs. Lee Whiting (R). Democratic win probability: 93.3% (Republican 6.7%).
- State Assembly District 8 — Sylvia Ortiz-Velez (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 9 — Priscilla Prado (D). Democratic win probability: 99.5% (Republican 0.5%).
- State Assembly District 10 — Darrin Madison (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 11 — Sequanna Taylor (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 12 — Russell Goodwin (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 13 — Amy Zimmerman (D). Democratic win probability: 89.3% (Republican 10.7%).
- State Assembly District 14 — Angelito Tenorio (D). Democratic win probability: 87.1% (Republican 12.9%).
- State Assembly District 15 — Adam Neylon (R). Democratic win probability: 33.2% (Republican 66.8%).
- State Assembly District 16 — Kalan Haywood (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 17 — Supreme Moore Omokunde (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 18 — Margaret Arney (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 19 — Ryan Clancy (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 20 — Christine Sinicki (D). Democratic win probability: 95.8% (Republican 4.2%).
- State Assembly District 21 — Dan Bukiewicz (D). Democratic win probability: 66.3% (Republican 33.7%).
- State Assembly District 22 — Paul Melotik (R). Democratic win probability: 37.1% (Republican 62.9%).
- State Assembly District 23 — Deb Andraca (D). Democratic win probability: 97.0% (Republican 3.0%).
- State Assembly District 24 — Dan Knodl (R). Democratic win probability: 30.2% (Republican 69.8%).
- State Assembly District 25 — Paul Tittl (R). Democratic win probability: 24.8% (Republican 75.2%).
- State Assembly District 26 — Joe Sheehan (D). Democratic win probability: 79.4% (Republican 20.6%).
- State Assembly District 27 — Lindee Brill (R). Democratic win probability: 10.6% (Republican 89.4%).
- State Assembly District 28 — Robin Kreibich (R). Democratic win probability: 13.4% (Republican 86.6%).
- State Assembly District 29 — Chris Danou (D) vs. Treig Pronschinske (R). Democratic win probability: 16.3% (Republican 83.7%).
- State Assembly District 30 — Shannon Zimmerman (R). Democratic win probability: 51.2% (Republican 48.8%).
- State Assembly District 31 — Tyler August (R). Democratic win probability: 20.0% (Republican 80.0%).
- State Assembly District 32 — Amanda Nedweski (R). Democratic win probability: 10.1% (Republican 89.9%).
- State Assembly District 33 — Candidates to be determined. Democratic win probability: 17.5% (Republican 82.5%).
- State Assembly District 34 — Rob Swearingen (R). Democratic win probability: 18.2% (Republican 81.8%).
- State Assembly District 35 — Calvin Callahan (R). Democratic win probability: 10.6% (Republican 89.4%).
- State Assembly District 36 — Jeffrey Mursau (R). Democratic win probability: 5.9% (Republican 94.1%).
- State Assembly District 37 — LaToya Bates (D) vs. Mark Born (R). Democratic win probability: 9.1% (Republican 90.9%).
- State Assembly District 38 — William Penterman (R). Democratic win probability: 11.3% (Republican 88.7%).
- State Assembly District 39 — Alex Dallman (R). Democratic win probability: 7.7% (Republican 92.3%).
- State Assembly District 40 — Karen DeSanto (D) vs. Julie Helmer (R). Democratic win probability: 85.7% (Republican 14.3%).
- State Assembly District 41 — Tony Kurtz (R). Democratic win probability: 20.8% (Republican 79.2%).
- State Assembly District 42 — Maureen McCarville (D). Democratic win probability: 87.7% (Republican 12.3%).
- State Assembly District 43 — Brienne Brown (D) vs. Paul McGraw (R). Democratic win probability: 78.9% (Republican 21.1%).
- State Assembly District 44 — Ann Roe (D). Democratic win probability: 90.2% (Republican 9.8%).
- State Assembly District 45 — Clinton Anderson (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 46 — Joan Fitzgerald (D). Democratic win probability: 82.0% (Republican 18.0%).
- State Assembly District 47 — Randy Udell (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 48 — Andrew Hysell (D). Democratic win probability: 99.0% (Republican 1.0%).
- State Assembly District 49 — Travis Tranel (R). Democratic win probability: 21.1% (Republican 78.9%).
- State Assembly District 50 — Josh Mittness (D). Democratic win probability: 87.5% (Republican 12.5%).
- State Assembly District 51 — Todd Novak (R). Democratic win probability: 60.5% (Republican 39.5%).
- State Assembly District 52 — Lee Snodgrass (D) vs. Reive Pullen (R). Democratic win probability: 91.5% (Republican 8.5%).
- State Assembly District 53 — Candidates to be determined. Democratic win probability: 69.0% (Republican 31.0%).
- State Assembly District 54 — Lori Palmeri (D). Democratic win probability: 82.5% (Republican 17.5%).
- State Assembly District 55 — Nate Gustafson (R). Democratic win probability: 28.9% (Republican 71.1%).
- State Assembly District 56 — Candidates to be determined. Democratic win probability: 20.1% (Republican 79.9%).
- State Assembly District 57 — Bill Lorge (R). Democratic win probability: 11.2% (Republican 88.8%).
- State Assembly District 58 — Candidates to be determined. Democratic win probability: 7.2% (Republican 92.8%).
- State Assembly District 59 — Candidates to be determined. Democratic win probability: 2.9% (Republican 97.1%).
- State Assembly District 60 — Candidates to be determined. Democratic win probability: 34.3% (Republican 65.7%).
- State Assembly District 61 — Bob Donovan (R). Democratic win probability: 60.9% (Republican 39.1%).
- State Assembly District 62 — Angelina Cruz (D). Democratic win probability: 93.8% (Republican 6.2%).
- State Assembly District 63 — Robert Wittke (R). Democratic win probability: 2.1% (Republican 97.9%).
- State Assembly District 64 — Tip McGuire (D). Democratic win probability: 88.8% (Republican 11.2%).
- State Assembly District 65 — Ben DeSmidt (D). Democratic win probability: 84.1% (Republican 15.9%).
- State Assembly District 66 — Greta Neubauer (D). Democratic win probability: 85.5% (Republican 14.5%).
- State Assembly District 67 — Indiana Thompson (D) vs. David Armstrong (R). Democratic win probability: 10.8% (Republican 89.2%).
- State Assembly District 68 — Rob Summerfield (R). Democratic win probability: 4.2% (Republican 95.8%).
- State Assembly District 69 — Karen Hurd (R). Democratic win probability: 2.7% (Republican 97.3%).
- State Assembly District 70 — Stephanie Stuve-Bodeen (D) vs. Nancy VanderMeer (R). Democratic win probability: 12.4% (Republican 87.6%).
- State Assembly District 71 — Katrina Shankland (D). Democratic win probability: 80.4% (Republican 19.6%).
- State Assembly District 72 — Scott Krug (R). Democratic win probability: 18.7% (Republican 81.3%).
- State Assembly District 73 — Angela Stroud (D). Democratic win probability: 93.0% (Republican 7.0%).
- State Assembly District 74 — Chanz Green (R). Democratic win probability: 22.5% (Republican 77.5%).
- State Assembly District 75 — Duke Tucker (R). Democratic win probability: 12.4% (Republican 87.6%).
- State Assembly District 76 — Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 77 — Renuka Mayadev (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 78 — Shelia Stubbs (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 79 — Lisa Subeck (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 80 — Mike Bare (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 81 — Alex Joers (D). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho (D). Democratic win probability: 44.9% (Republican 55.1%).
- State Assembly District 83 — Dave Maxey (R). Democratic win probability: 27.0% (Republican 73.0%).
- State Assembly District 84 — Chuck Wichgers (R). Democratic win probability: 5.0% (Republican 95.0%).
- State Assembly District 85 — Patrick Snyder (R). Democratic win probability: 55.0% (Republican 45.0%).
- State Assembly District 86 — John Spiros (R). Democratic win probability: 12.1% (Republican 87.9%).
- State Assembly District 87 — Brent Jacobson (R). Democratic win probability: 13.9% (Republican 86.1%).
- State Assembly District 88 — Ben Franklin (R). Democratic win probability: 65.5% (Republican 34.5%).
- State Assembly District 89 — Ryan Spaude (D). Democratic win probability: 79.1% (Republican 20.9%).
- State Assembly District 90 — Amaad Rivera-Wagner (D). Democratic win probability: 82.2% (Republican 17.8%).
- State Assembly District 91 — Jodi Emerson (D). Democratic win probability: 79.7% (Republican 20.3%).
- State Assembly District 92 — Jeremiah Fredrickson (D) vs. Clint Moses (R). Democratic win probability: 54.6% (Republican 45.4%).
- State Assembly District 93 — Christian Phelps (D). Democratic win probability: 82.7% (Republican 17.3%).
- State Assembly District 94 — Steve Doyle (D). Democratic win probability: 76.0% (Republican 24.0%).
- State Assembly District 95 — Jill Billings (D). Democratic win probability: 80.7% (Republican 19.3%).
- State Assembly District 96 — Tara Johnson (D). Democratic win probability: 78.0% (Republican 22.0%).
- State Assembly District 97 — Cindi Duchow (R). Democratic win probability: 5.9% (Republican 94.1%).
- State Assembly District 98 — Jim Piwowarczyk (R). Democratic win probability: 5.8% (Republican 94.2%).
- State Assembly District 99 — Barbara Dittrich (R). Democratic win probability: 2.1% (Republican 97.9%).