Wisconsin 2026 State Assembly Forecast
Race-by-race State Assembly forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats are favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 53 of 99 seats up for election; Republicans in 46.
Current composition
Democrats 45 · Republicans 54.
Races
- State Assembly District 1 — Renee Paplham (D) vs. Joel Kitchens (R). Democratic win probability: 24.1% (Republican 75.9%).
- State Assembly District 2 — Alicia Saunders (D) vs. Shae Sortwell (R). Democratic win probability: 20.4% (Republican 79.6%).
- State Assembly District 3 — Ron Tusler (R). Democratic win probability: 17.1% (Republican 82.9%).
- State Assembly District 4 — Alexia Unertl (D) vs. David Steffen (R). Democratic win probability: 13.4% (Republican 86.6%).
- State Assembly District 5 — Justin Schumacher (D) vs. Joy Goeben (R). Democratic win probability: 21.5% (Republican 78.5%).
- State Assembly District 6 — Shirley Hinze (D) vs. Elijah Behnke (R). Democratic win probability: 11.1% (Republican 88.9%).
- State Assembly District 7 — Karen Kirsch (D) vs. Lee Whiting (R). Democratic win probability: 93.5% (Republican 6.5%).
- State Assembly District 8 — Ismael Luna (D) vs. Angel Sanchez (R). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 9 — Priscilla Prado (D) vs. Samuel Guerrero (R). Democratic win probability: 99.6% (Republican 0.4%).
- State Assembly District 10 — Darrin Madison Jr. (D). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- State Assembly District 11 — Sequanna Taylor (D) vs. Shandowlyon Hendricks Reaves (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 12 — Russell Goodwin (D). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- State Assembly District 13 — Amy Zimmerman (D) vs. Mike Morgan (R). Democratic win probability: 89.4% (Republican 10.6%).
- State Assembly District 14 — Angelito Tenorio (D) vs. AmyRose Murphy (R). Democratic win probability: 87.4% (Republican 12.6%).
- State Assembly District 15 — Stephen Tryon (D) vs. Adam Neylon (R). Democratic win probability: 33.1% (Republican 66.9%).
- State Assembly District 16 — Kalan Haywood (D) vs. Alciro Deacon (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 17 — Supreme Moore Omokunde (D) vs. Charlene Abughrin (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 18 — Margaret Arney (D) vs. Joel Richmond (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 19 — Ryan Clancy (D) vs. Yasmine Outlaw (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 20 — Christine Sinicki (D) vs. Kyle Cleary (R). Democratic win probability: 95.9% (Republican 4.1%).
- State Assembly District 21 — Daniel Bukiewicz (D) vs. Dylan Pfaffenbach (R). Democratic win probability: 68.1% (Republican 31.9%).
- State Assembly District 22 — Dana Glasstein (D) vs. Paul Melotik (R). Democratic win probability: 36.9% (Republican 63.1%).
- State Assembly District 23 — Deb Andraca (D) vs. Aleaner Pabonnie (R). Democratic win probability: 97.1% (Republican 2.9%).
- State Assembly District 24 — Matt Brown (D) vs. Dan Knodl (R). Democratic win probability: 30.1% (Republican 69.9%).
- State Assembly District 25 — Christopher Able (D) vs. Paul Tittl (R). Democratic win probability: 24.7% (Republican 75.3%).
- State Assembly District 26 — Joe Sheehan (D) vs. John Belanger (R). Democratic win probability: 78.5% (Republican 21.5%).
- State Assembly District 27 — Lindee Brill (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Assembly District 28 — Robin Lillesve (D) vs. Robin Kreibich (R). Democratic win probability: 13.4% (Republican 86.6%).
- State Assembly District 29 — Chris Danou (D) vs. Treig Pronschinske (R). Democratic win probability: 16.2% (Republican 83.8%).
- State Assembly District 30 — Kevin Knoke (D) vs. Shannon Zimmerman (R). Democratic win probability: 51.1% (Republican 48.9%).
- State Assembly District 31 — John Perryman (D) vs. Tyler August (R). Democratic win probability: 19.9% (Republican 80.1%).
- State Assembly District 32 — Greg Miller (D) vs. Amanda Nedweski (R). Democratic win probability: 10.0% (Republican 90.0%).
- State Assembly District 33 — Maria Bisabarros (D) vs. Steve Wicklund (R). Democratic win probability: 16.5% (Republican 83.5%).
- State Assembly District 34 — Merlin Van Buren (D) vs. Rob Swearingen (R). Democratic win probability: 18.1% (Republican 81.9%).
- State Assembly District 35 — Elizabeth McCrank (D) vs. Calvin Callahan (R). Democratic win probability: 10.5% (Republican 89.5%).
- State Assembly District 36 — Jeffrey Mursau (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Assembly District 37 — LaToya Bates (D) vs. Mark Born (R). Democratic win probability: 9.1% (Republican 90.9%).
- State Assembly District 38 — Terri Wenkman (D) vs. William Penterman (R). Democratic win probability: 11.2% (Republican 88.8%).
- State Assembly District 39 — Michael Skivington (D) vs. Alex Dallman (R). Democratic win probability: 7.6% (Republican 92.4%).
- State Assembly District 40 — Karen DeSanto (D) vs. Julie Helmer (R). Democratic win probability: 86.0% (Republican 14.0%).
- State Assembly District 41 — Zach Commons (D) vs. Tony Kurtz (R). Democratic win probability: 20.7% (Republican 79.3%).
- State Assembly District 42 — Maureen McCarville (D) vs. Keith Miller (R). Democratic win probability: 88.0% (Republican 12.0%).
- State Assembly District 43 — Brienne Brown (D) vs. Paul McGraw (R). Democratic win probability: 79.2% (Republican 20.8%).
- State Assembly District 44 — Ann Roe (D) vs. Ron Woodman (R). Democratic win probability: 90.4% (Republican 9.6%).
- State Assembly District 45 — Clinton Anderson (D) vs. Jocelyn Jordan (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 46 — Joan Fitzgerald (D) vs. John Donohue (R). Democratic win probability: 82.3% (Republican 17.7%).
- State Assembly District 47 — Randy Udell (D) vs. Sandy Bakk (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 48 — Andrew Hysell (D) vs. Mark Kjorlie (R). Democratic win probability: 99.0% (Republican 1.0%).
- State Assembly District 49 — John Rindy (D) vs. Travis Tranel (R). Democratic win probability: 21.0% (Republican 79.0%).
- State Assembly District 50 — Bill Oemichen (D) vs. Jon Aleckson (R). Democratic win probability: 88.5% (Republican 11.5%).
- State Assembly District 51 — Ben Gruber (D) vs. Todd Novak (R). Democratic win probability: 60.4% (Republican 39.6%).
- State Assembly District 52 — Lee Snodgrass (D) vs. Reive Pullen (R). Democratic win probability: 91.7% (Republican 8.3%).
- State Assembly District 53 — Becky Nichols (D) vs. David Daniels (R). Democratic win probability: 69.2% (Republican 30.8%).
- State Assembly District 54 — Lori Palmeri (D) vs. Tim Paterson (R). Democratic win probability: 82.8% (Republican 17.2%).
- State Assembly District 55 — Alex Corrigan (D) vs. Nate Gustafson (R). Democratic win probability: 28.8% (Republican 71.2%).
- State Assembly District 56 — Grace Abitz (D) vs. Anthony Phillips (R). Democratic win probability: 20.2% (Republican 79.8%).
- State Assembly District 57 — Joey Marschall (D) vs. Kevin Krentz (R). Democratic win probability: 11.3% (Republican 88.7%).
- State Assembly District 58 — Dennis Degenhardt (D) vs. Bernie Newman (R). Democratic win probability: 7.2% (Republican 92.8%).
- State Assembly District 59 — Jack Holzman (D) vs. Bradley Petersen (R). Democratic win probability: 3.0% (Republican 97.0%).
- State Assembly District 60 — Marty Ryan (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Assembly District 61 — Ben Brist (D) vs. Robert Donovan (R). Democratic win probability: 60.7% (Republican 39.3%).
- State Assembly District 62 — Angelina Cruz (D) vs. Mike Bellagio (R). Democratic win probability: 94.0% (Republican 6.0%).
- State Assembly District 63 — Eddie Phanichkul (D) vs. Robert Wittke (R). Democratic win probability: 2.1% (Republican 97.9%).
- State Assembly District 64 — Tip McGuire (D) vs. Ed Hibsch (R). Democratic win probability: 89.1% (Republican 10.9%).
- State Assembly District 65 — Ben DeSmidt (D) vs. Valerie Kretchmer (R). Democratic win probability: 84.4% (Republican 15.6%).
- State Assembly District 66 — Greta Neubauer (D) vs. Gina Cefalu Paulick (R). Democratic win probability: 85.8% (Republican 14.2%).
- State Assembly District 67 — Indiana Thompson (D) vs. David Armstrong (R). Democratic win probability: 10.7% (Republican 89.3%).
- State Assembly District 68 — Elisha King (D) vs. Rob Summerfield (R). Democratic win probability: 4.1% (Republican 95.9%).
- State Assembly District 69 — Roger Halls (D) vs. Karen Hurd (R). Democratic win probability: 2.7% (Republican 97.3%).
- State Assembly District 70 — Stephanie Stuve-Bodeen (D) vs. Nancy VanderMeer (R). Democratic win probability: 12.4% (Republican 87.6%).
- State Assembly District 71 — Vinnie Miresse (D) vs. Jeff Disher (R). Democratic win probability: 84.0% (Republican 16.0%).
- State Assembly District 72 — Christine Maltese (D) vs. Scott Krug (R). Democratic win probability: 18.6% (Republican 81.4%).
- State Assembly District 73 — Angela Stroud (D) vs. Frank Kostka (R). Democratic win probability: 93.1% (Republican 6.9%).
- State Assembly District 74 — Paul Johnson (D) vs. Chanz Green (R). Democratic win probability: 22.4% (Republican 77.6%).
- State Assembly District 75 — Keith Mogel (D) vs. Duke Tucker (R). Democratic win probability: 12.4% (Republican 87.6%).
- State Assembly District 76 — Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (D) vs. Nina Chat (R). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 77 — Renuka Mayadev (D) vs. Jane McCormick (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 78 — Shelia Stubbs (D) vs. Henry Johnson (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 79 — Lisa Subeck (D) vs. John Fons (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 80 — Mike Bare (D) vs. Simran Arora (R). Democratic win probability: 99.8% (Republican 0.2%).
- State Assembly District 81 — Alex Joers (D) vs. Mark Maier (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho (D) vs. Bryson Reyes (R). Democratic win probability: 45.1% (Republican 54.9%).
- State Assembly District 83 — Dave Maxey (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Assembly District 84 — Chuck Wichgers (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Assembly District 85 — John Kroll (D) vs. Patrick Snyder (R). Democratic win probability: 54.8% (Republican 45.2%).
- State Assembly District 86 — Andy Wuethrich (D) vs. John Spiros (R). Democratic win probability: 12.0% (Republican 88.0%).
- State Assembly District 87 — Bob Look (D) vs. Brent Jacobson (R). Democratic win probability: 13.8% (Republican 86.2%).
- State Assembly District 88 — Brandy Tollefson (D) vs. Ben Franklin (R). Democratic win probability: 65.4% (Republican 34.6%).
- State Assembly District 89 — Ryan Spaude (D) vs. Bobby Lindsey (R). Democratic win probability: 79.5% (Republican 20.5%).
- State Assembly District 90 — Amaad Rivera-Wagner (D) vs. Jessica Henderson (R). Democratic win probability: 82.6% (Republican 17.4%).
- State Assembly District 91 — Jodi Emerson (D) vs. Bruce Stabenow (R). Democratic win probability: 80.0% (Republican 20.0%).
- State Assembly District 92 — Jeremiah Fredrickson (D) vs. Clint Moses (R). Democratic win probability: 54.5% (Republican 45.5%).
- State Assembly District 93 — Christian Phelps (D) vs. Michael Ayala (R). Democratic win probability: 83.0% (Republican 17.0%).
- State Assembly District 94 — Steve Doyle (D) vs. Keith Purnell (R). Democratic win probability: 76.4% (Republican 23.6%).
- State Assembly District 95 — Jill Billings (D) vs. Cedric Schnitzler (R). Democratic win probability: 81.1% (Republican 18.9%).
- State Assembly District 96 — Tara Johnson (D) vs. Jim Green (R). Democratic win probability: 78.4% (Republican 21.6%).
- State Assembly District 97 — Cindi Duchow (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Assembly District 98 — Matt Philibert (D) vs. Jim Piwowarczyk (R). Democratic win probability: 5.8% (Republican 94.2%).
- State Assembly District 99 — Barbara Dittrich (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).