Wisconsin 2026 State Senate Forecast
Race-by-race State Senate forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats are favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 7 of 17 seats up for election; Republicans in 10.
Current composition
Democrats 15 · Republicans 18.
Races
- State Senate District 1 — Nic Cravillion (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Senate District 3 — Tim Carpenter (D). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- State Senate District 5 — Robyn Vining (D) vs. Mike Roberts (R). Democratic win probability: 81.8% (Republican 18.2%).
- State Senate District 7 — Chris Larson (D) vs. Mike Moeller (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Senate District 9 — Amy Binsfeld (R). Democratic win probability: 0.0% (Republican 100.0%).
- State Senate District 11 — Adam Duda (D) vs. Ellen Schutt (R). Democratic win probability: 10.6% (Republican 89.4%).
- State Senate District 13 — Sasha Ripley (D) vs. John Jagler (R). Democratic win probability: 4.7% (Republican 95.3%).
- State Senate District 15 — Mark Spreitzer (D) vs. Scott Fleming (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Senate District 17 — Jenna Jacobson (D) vs. Howard Marklein (R). Democratic win probability: 59.9% (Republican 40.1%).
- State Senate District 19 — Emily Tseffos (D) vs. Rachael Cabral-Guevara (R). Democratic win probability: 11.0% (Republican 89.0%).
- State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung (D) vs. Jim Croft (R). Democratic win probability: 45.8% (Republican 54.2%).
- State Senate District 23 — Jeff Foster (D) vs. Romaine Quinn (R). Democratic win probability: 3.4% (Republican 96.6%).
- State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray (D) vs. Erik Severson (R). Democratic win probability: 41.0% (Republican 59.0%).
- State Senate District 27 — Dianne Hesselbein (D). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- State Senate District 29 — Gillian Battino (D) vs. Cory Tomczyk (R). Democratic win probability: 17.7% (Republican 82.3%).
- State Senate District 31 — Jeff Smith (D) vs. Michele Magadance Skinner (R). Democratic win probability: 78.2% (Republican 21.8%).
- State Senate District 33 — Mike Van Someren (D) vs. Chris Kapenga (R). Democratic win probability: 0.9% (Republican 99.1%).